Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AVAX prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 0.008180 0.009232 0.010385 0.011745 0.013309 0.015055 0.017158
2024-10-20 0.006260 0.007617 0.009234 0.011316 0.013943 0.017168 0.021461
2024-10-27 0.005247 0.006702 0.008536 0.011038 0.014398 0.018802 0.025089
2024-11-03 0.004651 0.006180 0.008196 0.011081 0.015163 0.020817 0.029391
2024-11-10 0.004335 0.005964 0.008200 0.011541 0.016496 0.023715 0.035292
2024-11-17 0.003891 0.005510 0.007805 0.011362 0.016852 0.025204 0.039261
2024-11-24 0.003584 0.005211 0.007590 0.011401 0.017510 0.027190 0.044254
2024-12-01 0.003257 0.004845 0.007231 0.011167 0.017689 0.028408 0.048107
2024-12-08 0.003084 0.004695 0.007180 0.011404 0.018641 0.030990 0.054682
2024-12-15 0.002879 0.004473 0.006990 0.011386 0.019152 0.032859 0.060220
2024-12-22 0.002602 0.004112 0.006544 0.010886 0.018757 0.033056 0.062580
2024-12-29 0.002439 0.003923 0.006363 0.010825 0.019132 0.034696 0.068020
2025-01-05 0.002392 0.003930 0.006522 0.011397 0.020780 0.039028 0.079889
2025-01-12 0.002186 0.003649 0.006162 0.010991 0.020522 0.039604 0.083846
2025-01-19 0.002023 0.003429 0.005891 0.010721 0.020496 0.040635 0.088982
2025-01-26 0.001921 0.003310 0.005788 0.010763 0.021097 0.043054 0.097785
2025-02-02 0.001882 0.003302 0.005888 0.011207 0.022586 0.047600 0.112632
2025-02-09 0.001767 0.003143 0.005691 0.011034 0.022730 0.049148 0.120184
2025-02-16 0.001688 0.003044 0.005602 0.011072 0.023341 0.051855 0.131328
2025-02-23 0.001585 0.002893 0.005397 0.010846 0.023323 0.053049 0.138539
2025-03-02 0.001539 0.002851 0.005404 0.011075 0.024383 0.057041 0.154561
2025-03-09 0.001471 0.002759 0.005304 0.011058 0.024858 0.059621 0.166975
2025-03-16 0.001362 0.002578 0.005007 0.010574 0.024144 0.059007 0.169440